KMCI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

40%

37%

33%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.6¢Risks 34.55u

ICONNO 65.5¢Risks 65.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.45u · ICON −65.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	65.9%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	33.6%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	0.3%	46.0%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	46.5%	5.1%	0.1%	—	47.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	55.8%	22.1%	22.1%	—	26.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	23.9%	44.7%	18.4%	—	19.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	26.1%	39.0%	8.1%	—	25.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	25.8%	10.4%	19.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	11.1%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	29.1%	32.2%	19.0%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	25.7%	30.2%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	26.6%	33.0%	14.4%	—	22.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	18.4%	29.2%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	17.7%	21.8%	21.8%	—	21.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	4.9%	31.7%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	11.3%	33.0%	11.3%	0.0%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	12.1%	35.5%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	14.9%	35.1%	13.1%	—	14.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	21.4%	36.7%	0.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	3.8%	43.0%	8.5%	0.0%	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	11.9%	30.4%	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	8.9%	32.0%	8.9%	35.4%	21.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	21.9%	37.3%	7.2%	—	9.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	5.0%	42.0%	8.4%	12.0%	10.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	36.3%	27.6%	6.2%	—	10.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	45.7%	29.3%	8.3%	26.8%	8.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	23.6%	2.2%	—	4.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	74.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	71.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	71.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	66.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗