KMCI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

40%

37%

33%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.6¢Risks 34.55u

ICONNO 65.5¢Risks 65.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.45u · ICON −65.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:01+00:00	68.9%	32.3%	33.7%	29.6%	3.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	68.9%	32.3%	63.9%	29.6%	3.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	68.9%	32.3%	63.9%	29.6%	3.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	68.9%	32.3%	63.9%	29.6%	3.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00	62.9%	32.3%	63.9%	38.3%	5.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	62.9%	32.3%	63.9%	38.3%	5.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	62.9%	32.3%	63.9%	38.3%	5.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	62.9%	32.3%	63.9%	38.3%	5.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:00	62.9%	32.3%	63.9%	38.3%	5.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00	62.9%	40.2%	59.5%	38.3%	5.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	62.9%	40.2%	59.5%	38.3%	5.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	62.9%	40.2%	59.5%	38.3%	5.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	54.0%	40.2%	59.5%	38.3%	5.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	54.1%	40.2%	59.5%	38.3%	6.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00	54.1%	40.2%	59.5%	38.3%	6.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	54.1%	40.2%	59.5%	38.3%	6.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:20+00:00	54.1%	40.2%	59.5%	38.3%	6.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	54.1%	40.2%	35.3%	38.3%	6.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	54.1%	40.2%	35.3%	38.3%	6.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00	54.1%	40.2%	35.3%	38.3%	6.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	61.0%	40.2%	35.3%	33.3%	4.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	61.0%	40.2%	35.3%	33.3%	4.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	61.0%	40.2%	35.3%	33.3%	4.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	61.0%	40.2%	35.3%	33.3%	4.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	61.0%	40.2%	35.3%	33.3%	4.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	61.0%	40.2%	36.6%	33.3%	4.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00	61.0%	40.2%	36.6%	33.3%	4.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	61.0%	40.2%	36.6%	33.3%	4.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	64.9%	40.2%	36.6%	33.3%	4.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	64.9%	40.2%	36.6%	33.3%	4.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	64.9%	40.2%	36.6%	33.3%	4.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	74.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	71.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	71.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	66.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗