KMCI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

16%

12%

11%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.3¢Risks 19.30u

EPSNO 80.7¢Risks 80.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.70u · EPS −80.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:42+00:00	30.9%	34.0%	27.5%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	30.9%	34.0%	27.5%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	30.9%	34.0%	27.5%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	30.9%	34.0%	27.5%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:21+00:00	30.9%	23.2%	27.3%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	30.9%	23.2%	27.3%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	30.9%	23.2%	27.3%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	30.9%	23.2%	27.3%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	32.2%	23.2%	27.3%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	32.2%	24.7%	27.3%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:39+00:00	32.2%	24.7%	27.3%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	32.2%	24.7%	27.3%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	32.2%	24.7%	28.7%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	32.2%	24.7%	28.7%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	32.2%	24.7%	28.7%	45.6%	5.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	15.5%	24.7%	28.7%	45.6%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	15.5%	24.7%	28.7%	45.6%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	15.5%	24.7%	28.7%	45.6%	50.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	15.5%	24.7%	28.7%	45.6%	50.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	15.5%	24.7%	28.7%	44.4%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	15.5%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	15.5%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	50.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	15.5%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	50.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	33.5%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	50.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	33.5%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	50.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:53+00:00	33.5%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	50.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	33.5%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	50.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	33.5%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	50.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	33.5%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	33.5%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	33.5%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	50.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	36.7%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	52.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:38+00:00	36.7%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	52.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	36.7%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	52.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	36.7%	24.7%	36.6%	44.4%	52.3%
2026-10-14T10:33:38+00:00	36.7%	24.7%	36.6%	22.8%	52.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	36.7%	6.1%	18.6%	22.8%	52.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	36.7%	6.1%	18.6%	22.8%	52.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	36.7%	6.1%	18.6%	22.8%	52.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:29+00:00	29.9%	6.1%	18.6%	22.8%	52.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	30.8%	6.2%	18.9%	22.8%	52.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	30.8%	6.9%	18.9%	22.8%	52.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	30.8%	6.9%	18.9%	22.8%	52.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	30.8%	6.9%	18.9%	22.8%	52.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	30.8%	6.9%	18.9%	22.8%	52.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	30.8%	6.9%	18.9%	22.8%	52.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	30.8%	6.9%	18.9%	22.8%	52.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	29.5%	6.9%	18.9%	15.1%	28.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	29.5%	6.9%	18.9%	15.1%	28.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	29.5%	6.9%	18.9%	15.1%	28.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	29.5%	6.9%	18.9%	15.1%	28.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	29.5%	6.9%	18.9%	15.1%	28.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	29.5%	6.9%	16.8%	15.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:49+00:00	29.5%	6.9%	16.8%	15.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	29.5%	6.9%	16.8%	15.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	27.0%	6.9%	16.8%	15.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	27.0%	6.9%	16.8%	15.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	27.0%	6.9%	16.8%	15.1%	28.1%
2026-10-16T04:24:20+00:00	29.3%	9.1%	15.3%	18.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	29.3%	9.1%	16.5%	18.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	29.3%	9.1%	16.5%	18.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	29.3%	9.1%	16.5%	18.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	30.8%	9.1%	16.5%	18.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	30.8%	9.1%	16.5%	18.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	30.8%	9.1%	16.5%	18.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	30.8%	9.1%	16.5%	18.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	30.8%	9.1%	16.5%	18.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:20+00:00	30.8%	8.6%	11.8%	18.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	30.8%	8.6%	11.8%	18.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	30.8%	8.6%	11.8%	18.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:41+00:00	30.1%	8.6%	11.8%	10.7%	16.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	30.0%	8.6%	11.8%	10.7%	16.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	74.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	71.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	72.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	70.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	72.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗