KMCI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

16%

12%

11%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.3¢Risks 19.30u

EPSNO 80.7¢Risks 80.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.70u · EPS −80.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	41.3%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	14.1%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	21.8%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	21.4%	0.9%	0.0%	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	27.9%	6.6%	6.6%	—	8.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	7.0%	18.4%	4.8%	—	5.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	7.5%	14.0%	1.4%	—	7.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	6.9%	1.8%	4.5%	—	6.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	1.9%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	7.7%	9.0%	3.9%	—	5.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	6.0%	7.8%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	6.1%	8.6%	2.3%	—	4.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	3.2%	6.7%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	2.9%	4.0%	4.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.4%	7.0%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.2%	7.1%	1.2%	0.0%	1.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	1.3%	7.6%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	1.6%	7.0%	1.3%	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.7%	7.1%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.2%	9.0%	0.5%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	0.9%	4.3%	0.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.5%	4.3%	0.5%	5.2%	2.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.9%	5.3%	0.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.1%	6.1%	0.3%	0.6%	0.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	4.0%	2.3%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.9%	2.3%	0.2%	1.9%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	74.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	71.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	72.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	70.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	72.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗