KMCI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

40%

36%

18%

15%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 29.6¢Risks 29.65u

EPSNO 70.3¢Risks 70.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.35u · EPS −70.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	12.7%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	2.1%	10.8%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	20.4%	9.6%	0.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	17.0%	26.0%	3.6%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	24.5%	6.8%	11.4%	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	17.9%	0.6%	14.9%	—	12.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	15.2%	9.7%	10.1%	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	3.8%	17.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	18.4%	18.4%	9.4%	—	12.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	15.0%	17.2%	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	9.8%	16.0%	9.4%	—	8.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	12.7%	15.9%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	11.6%	14.2%	8.2%	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	8.0%	14.0%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	7.8%	12.8%	4.4%	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.8%	11.6%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	9.0%	13.7%	5.3%	—	9.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	8.3%	11.8%	0.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	4.8%	12.1%	3.5%	0.0%	4.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	11.4%	10.2%	1.9%	—	6.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	12.4%	8.5%	2.3%	4.9%	9.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	6.8%	2.4%	—	6.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	76.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	76.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	36%	75.3°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	72.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	74.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗