KMCI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

40%

36%

18%

15%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 29.6¢Risks 29.65u

EPSNO 70.3¢Risks 70.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.35u · EPS −70.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:17+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	35.2%	21.5%	49.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	35.2%	21.5%	49.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	38.2%	21.5%	49.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	38.2%	21.5%	49.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	38.2%	21.5%	49.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:55+00:00	49.3%	19.1%	38.2%	29.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	49.3%	19.1%	38.2%	29.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	49.3%	19.1%	38.2%	29.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	49.3%	19.1%	38.2%	29.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:21+00:00	49.3%	19.1%	38.2%	29.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	49.3%	19.1%	35.0%	29.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	49.3%	14.7%	35.0%	29.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:26+00:00	49.3%	14.7%	35.0%	29.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	42.6%	14.7%	35.0%	29.3%	41.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	42.6%	14.7%	35.0%	29.3%	41.1%
2026-10-16T04:24:20+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	45.7%	24.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	44.9%	24.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	44.9%	24.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	44.9%	24.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	42.8%	12.4%	44.9%	24.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	42.8%	12.4%	44.9%	24.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	42.8%	12.4%	44.9%	24.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	42.8%	12.4%	44.9%	24.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	42.8%	12.4%	44.9%	24.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:20+00:00	42.8%	15.9%	42.3%	24.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	42.8%	15.9%	42.3%	24.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	42.8%	15.9%	42.3%	24.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:41+00:00	43.6%	15.9%	42.3%	21.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	43.6%	15.9%	42.3%	21.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	43.6%	15.1%	42.3%	21.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	43.6%	15.1%	42.3%	21.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	43.6%	15.1%	42.3%	21.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	43.6%	15.1%	51.0%	21.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	43.6%	15.1%	51.0%	21.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	43.6%	15.1%	51.0%	21.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	38.9%	15.1%	51.0%	21.3%	35.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	38.9%	15.1%	51.0%	21.3%	35.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	38.9%	15.1%	51.0%	21.3%	35.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	38.9%	15.1%	51.0%	21.3%	35.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	38.9%	15.1%	51.0%	18.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	38.9%	15.1%	44.2%	18.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	38.9%	15.1%	44.2%	18.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	38.9%	15.1%	44.2%	18.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	39.7%	15.1%	44.2%	18.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	39.7%	15.1%	44.2%	18.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	39.7%	15.1%	44.2%	18.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	39.7%	15.1%	44.2%	18.0%	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	76.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	76.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	36%	75.3°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	72.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	74.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗