KMCI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

91%

61%

57%

57%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.2¢Risks 75.15u

ICONNO 24.8¢Risks 24.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.85u · ICON −24.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	8.3%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	37.8%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	0.0%	22.8%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.2%	42.3%	18.9%	0.7%	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	57.3%	60.8%	9.0%	—	44.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	49.2%	64.2%	15.5%	—	51.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	51.6%	71.9%	33.7%	—	43.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	76.3%	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	20.7%	60.7%	30.8%	—	41.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	31.9%	65.8%	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	46.5%	62.9%	38.8%	—	45.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	41.1%	63.2%	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	40.0%	61.8%	26.6%	—	33.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	48.1%	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	65.2%	64.3%	26.3%	—	43.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	58.0%	66.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	53.1%	65.1%	24.3%	—	35.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	65.5%	70.2%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	58.7%	51.1%	23.8%	63.9%	52.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	64.3%	0.0%	—	40.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	79.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	80.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	75.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	75.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	75.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	74.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗