KMCI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

91%

61%

57%

57%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.2¢Risks 75.15u

ICONNO 24.8¢Risks 24.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.85u · ICON −24.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	89.7%	59.2%	85.0%	62.4%	5.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	89.7%	63.1%	85.0%	62.4%	5.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:26+00:00	89.7%	63.1%	85.0%	62.4%	5.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	83.7%	63.1%	84.7%	62.2%	5.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	83.7%	63.1%	84.7%	62.2%	5.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	83.7%	56.8%	84.7%	62.2%	5.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	83.7%	56.8%	84.7%	62.2%	5.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	83.7%	56.8%	85.6%	62.2%	5.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	83.7%	56.8%	85.6%	62.2%	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	83.7%	56.8%	85.6%	62.2%	5.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	83.7%	56.8%	85.6%	62.2%	5.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	88.0%	56.8%	85.6%	62.2%	63.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	88.0%	56.8%	85.6%	62.2%	63.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	88.0%	56.8%	85.6%	62.2%	63.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	88.0%	56.8%	85.6%	62.2%	63.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	88.0%	56.8%	91.6%	62.2%	63.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	88.0%	56.8%	91.6%	62.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	88.0%	56.8%	91.6%	62.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	87.6%	56.8%	91.6%	62.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	87.6%	56.8%	91.6%	62.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	87.6%	56.8%	91.6%	62.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	87.6%	56.8%	91.6%	62.2%	63.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00	89.8%	50.0%	86.5%	43.8%	59.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	89.8%	50.0%	86.5%	43.8%	59.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	89.8%	50.0%	92.3%	43.8%	59.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	89.8%	50.0%	92.3%	43.8%	59.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	89.8%	50.0%	92.3%	43.8%	59.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	91.3%	50.0%	92.3%	43.8%	55.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	91.3%	50.0%	92.3%	43.8%	55.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	91.3%	50.0%	92.3%	43.8%	55.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	91.3%	50.0%	92.3%	43.8%	55.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00	91.3%	57.4%	93.5%	60.6%	55.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	91.3%	57.4%	93.5%	60.6%	55.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	91.3%	57.4%	93.5%	60.6%	55.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	91.3%	57.4%	93.5%	60.6%	55.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	91.3%	57.4%	93.6%	60.6%	56.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	79.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	80.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	75.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	75.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	75.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	74.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗