KMCI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

75%

56%

50%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

ICONNO 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.60u · ICON −54.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	6.1%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	31.8%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	0.0%	18.0%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	35.6%	14.5%	0.4%	—	38.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	50.0%	53.6%	6.4%	—	37.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	41.7%	56.8%	11.4%	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	43.6%	64.8%	26.8%	—	35.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	69.5%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	15.2%	52.5%	23.8%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	24.6%	57.6%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	37.9%	54.4%	30.7%	—	37.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	32.6%	54.5%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	31.4%	52.8%	19.6%	—	25.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	38.8%	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	55.8%	54.9%	19.0%	—	33.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	48.0%	57.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	42.8%	55.1%	17.0%	—	26.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	55.3%	60.5%	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	47.8%	40.3%	16.2%	53.3%	41.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	53.4%	0.0%	—	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	81.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	79.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	76.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	76.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	75.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	58.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 76°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗