WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMCI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
86%
WN2
75%
HRES
56%
EPS
50%
ICON
5%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 45.4¢Risks 45.40u
VS
ICONNO 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.60u · ICON −54.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:55+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T10:53:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T10:53:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T07:49:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T10:53:21+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-15T07:49:55+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-15T10:53:21+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T07:49:55+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T10:53:21+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:53
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:53:21+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:55+00:0086.1%50.0%74.8%56.3%4.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:0086.1%50.0%74.8%56.3%4.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:0086.1%50.0%74.8%56.3%4.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:0086.1%50.0%74.8%56.3%4.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:21+00:0086.1%50.0%74.8%56.3%4.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single86%81.6°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%79.1°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES56%76.5°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend54%76.0°F5.5°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble50%75.5°F4.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON5%58.9°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 76°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗