KMCI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

62%

43%

20%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

EPSNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.90u · EPS −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	3.2%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	21.2%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	0.0%	10.5%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	23.5%	7.9%	0.1%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	35.7%	39.2%	2.9%	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	27.7%	41.7%	5.6%	—	29.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	28.8%	49.2%	15.4%	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	54.1%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	7.4%	36.1%	12.9%	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	13.2%	40.7%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	22.8%	37.1%	17.2%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	18.4%	36.8%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	17.2%	34.7%	9.4%	—	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	22.4%	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	36.6%	35.7%	8.6%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	29.1%	37.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	24.3%	34.9%	7.1%	—	12.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	34.5%	39.5%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	27.3%	21.3%	6.2%	32.1%	22.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	31.5%	0.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	28.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	64%	78.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	78.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	43%	76.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	73.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	74.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗