KMCI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

32%

18%

12%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.4¢Risks 27.45u

EPSNO 72.5¢Risks 72.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.55u · EPS −72.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	1.5%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	13.0%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	0.0%	5.6%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	14.1%	3.9%	0.0%	—	16.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	23.2%	26.0%	1.2%	—	14.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	16.4%	27.7%	2.4%	—	17.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	16.9%	33.7%	7.8%	—	12.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	3.1%	21.9%	6.1%	—	10.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	6.1%	25.3%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	11.8%	22.1%	8.3%	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	8.8%	21.5%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	7.9%	19.6%	3.8%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	10.8%	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	20.3%	19.7%	3.2%	—	8.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	14.6%	20.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	11.3%	18.3%	2.4%	—	4.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	17.6%	21.3%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	12.5%	9.0%	1.9%	15.5%	9.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	14.8%	0.0%	—	4.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	79.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	77.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	75.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	73.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	74.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗