KMCI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

32%

18%

12%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.4¢Risks 27.45u

EPSNO 72.5¢Risks 72.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.55u · EPS −72.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:20+00:00	61.0%	14.7%	65.3%	32.0%	44.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	61.0%	14.7%	66.0%	32.0%	44.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	61.0%	14.7%	66.0%	32.0%	44.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	61.0%	14.7%	66.0%	32.0%	44.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	60.2%	14.7%	66.0%	32.0%	47.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	60.2%	14.7%	66.0%	32.0%	47.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	60.2%	14.7%	66.0%	32.0%	47.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	60.2%	14.7%	66.0%	32.0%	47.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	60.2%	14.7%	66.0%	32.0%	47.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:20+00:00	60.2%	9.2%	63.4%	32.0%	47.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	60.2%	9.2%	63.4%	32.0%	47.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	60.2%	9.2%	63.4%	32.0%	47.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:41+00:00	61.7%	9.2%	63.4%	28.2%	47.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	61.6%	9.3%	63.4%	28.2%	48.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	61.6%	8.9%	63.4%	28.2%	48.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	61.6%	8.9%	63.4%	28.2%	48.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	61.6%	8.9%	63.4%	28.2%	48.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	61.6%	8.9%	70.4%	28.2%	48.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	61.6%	8.9%	70.4%	28.2%	48.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	61.6%	8.9%	70.4%	28.2%	48.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	70.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	70.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	70.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	70.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	70.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	63.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	63.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	63.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	63.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	63.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	63.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	63.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:55+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	63.4%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	62.6%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	62.6%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	58.8%	8.9%	62.6%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:37+00:00	56.4%	8.9%	62.6%	25.0%	36.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	56.4%	8.9%	62.6%	25.0%	36.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	56.4%	8.9%	62.6%	25.0%	36.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	56.4%	8.9%	62.6%	25.0%	36.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	56.4%	8.9%	62.6%	25.0%	36.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	56.4%	15.2%	51.9%	25.0%	36.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	56.4%	15.2%	51.9%	25.0%	36.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	56.4%	15.2%	51.9%	25.0%	36.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	54.0%	15.2%	51.9%	25.0%	36.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	54.0%	15.2%	51.9%	25.0%	36.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:55+00:00	45.7%	8.8%	39.4%	15.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	45.7%	7.5%	39.4%	15.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	45.7%	7.5%	39.4%	15.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	45.7%	7.5%	37.4%	15.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00	45.7%	7.5%	37.4%	15.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	45.7%	7.5%	37.4%	15.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	46.5%	7.5%	37.4%	12.3%	18.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	46.5%	7.5%	37.4%	12.3%	18.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	46.5%	7.5%	37.4%	12.3%	18.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	46.5%	7.5%	37.4%	12.3%	18.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	46.5%	7.5%	37.4%	12.3%	18.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	46.5%	7.5%	32.4%	12.3%	18.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	46.5%	7.5%	32.4%	12.3%	18.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	46.5%	7.5%	32.4%	12.3%	18.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	47.4%	7.5%	32.4%	12.3%	18.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	47.4%	7.5%	32.4%	12.3%	18.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	47.4%	7.5%	32.4%	12.3%	18.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	47.4%	7.5%	32.4%	12.3%	18.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	79.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	77.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	75.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	73.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	74.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗