KMCI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

70%

58%

38%

29%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.9¢Risks 49.90u

EPSNO 50.1¢Risks 50.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.10u · EPS −50.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	19.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	43.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	59.0%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	44.6%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	3.8%	48.6%	0.4%	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	33.0%	36.4%	31.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	27.0%	37.2%	21.6%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	41.3%	43.6%	15.4%	—	30.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	37.7%	48.3%	20.7%	—	23.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	25.3%	46.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	55.2%	50.9%	23.4%	43.0%	39.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	46.4%	—	—	31.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	79.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	80.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	58%	78.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	75.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	75.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗