KMCI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

70%

58%

38%

29%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.9¢Risks 49.90u

EPSNO 50.1¢Risks 50.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.10u · EPS −50.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:13+00:00	61.6%	28.6%	56.2%	39.0%	29.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	61.6%	28.6%	63.8%	39.0%	29.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	61.6%	28.6%	63.8%	39.0%	29.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	61.6%	28.6%	63.8%	39.0%	29.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	61.6%	28.6%	63.8%	39.0%	29.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	63.0%	28.6%	63.8%	38.7%	57.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	63.0%	28.6%	63.8%	38.7%	57.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	63.0%	28.6%	63.8%	38.7%	57.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	63.0%	28.6%	63.8%	38.7%	57.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:50+00:00	63.0%	23.6%	63.4%	38.7%	57.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	63.0%	23.6%	63.4%	38.7%	57.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	63.0%	23.6%	63.4%	38.7%	57.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	63.0%	23.6%	63.4%	38.7%	57.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	63.7%	23.9%	63.4%	38.7%	57.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00	62.3%	22.0%	66.6%	41.6%	52.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	62.3%	22.0%	68.1%	41.6%	52.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	62.3%	22.0%	68.1%	41.6%	52.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:21+00:00	62.3%	22.0%	68.1%	41.6%	52.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00	68.6%	22.0%	68.1%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	68.6%	22.0%	68.1%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	68.6%	22.0%	68.1%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	68.6%	22.0%	68.1%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:00	68.6%	22.0%	68.1%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00	68.6%	29.4%	75.2%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	68.6%	29.4%	75.2%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	68.6%	29.4%	75.2%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	61.1%	29.4%	75.2%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	61.2%	29.4%	75.2%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00	61.2%	29.4%	75.2%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	61.2%	29.4%	75.2%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	61.2%	29.4%	75.2%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	61.2%	29.4%	68.7%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	61.2%	29.4%	68.7%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00	61.2%	29.4%	68.7%	41.1%	60.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	67.2%	29.4%	68.7%	38.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	67.2%	29.4%	68.7%	38.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	67.2%	29.4%	68.7%	38.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	67.2%	29.4%	68.7%	38.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	67.2%	29.4%	68.7%	38.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	67.2%	29.4%	70.4%	38.4%	57.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00	67.2%	29.4%	70.4%	38.4%	57.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	67.2%	29.4%	70.4%	38.4%	57.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	70.1%	29.4%	70.4%	38.4%	57.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	70.1%	29.4%	70.4%	38.4%	57.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	70.1%	29.4%	70.4%	38.4%	57.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	79.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	80.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	58%	78.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	75.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	75.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗