KMCI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

48%

33%

26%

22%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.65u

EPSNO 61.3¢Risks 61.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.35u · EPS −61.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	52.6%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	0.1%	38.0%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	2.5%	41.6%	0.2%	—	17.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	26.6%	29.7%	24.9%	—	14.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	21.1%	30.3%	16.4%	—	14.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	33.7%	35.9%	11.1%	—	23.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	30.0%	40.1%	15.2%	—	17.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	19.0%	38.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	46.5%	42.2%	17.2%	34.6%	31.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	37.6%	—	—	23.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	79.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	78.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	75.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	26%	72.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	74.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261024-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 79°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗