KMCI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

48%

33%

26%

22%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.65u

EPSNO 61.3¢Risks 61.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.35u · EPS −61.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:37+00:00	56.9%	31.2%	55.8%	27.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	56.9%	31.2%	55.8%	27.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	56.9%	31.2%	55.8%	27.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	56.9%	31.2%	55.8%	27.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	56.9%	31.2%	55.8%	27.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	56.9%	27.8%	63.1%	27.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	56.9%	27.8%	63.1%	27.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	56.9%	27.8%	63.1%	27.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	53.5%	27.8%	63.1%	27.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	53.5%	27.8%	63.0%	27.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:58+00:00	53.5%	22.5%	63.0%	27.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	53.5%	22.5%	63.0%	27.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	53.5%	22.5%	60.8%	27.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	53.5%	22.5%	60.8%	27.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	53.5%	22.5%	60.8%	27.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	53.5%	22.5%	60.8%	27.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	42.4%	22.5%	60.8%	33.2%	26.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	42.4%	22.5%	60.8%	33.2%	26.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	42.4%	22.5%	60.8%	33.2%	26.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	42.4%	22.5%	60.8%	33.2%	26.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	42.4%	22.5%	48.4%	33.2%	26.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	42.4%	22.5%	48.4%	33.2%	26.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:25+00:00	42.4%	22.5%	48.4%	33.2%	26.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	42.4%	22.5%	48.4%	33.2%	26.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	54.8%	22.5%	48.4%	33.2%	26.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	54.8%	22.5%	48.4%	33.2%	26.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	54.8%	22.5%	48.4%	33.2%	26.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	79.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	78.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	75.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	26%	72.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	74.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261024-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 79°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗