KMCI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

82%

77%

76%

72%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 79.8¢Risks 39.90u

EPSNO 20.2¢Risks 10.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +10.10u · EPS −10.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	32.4%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	57.1%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	1.6%	0.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	31.1%	28.6%	2.6%	—	32.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	48.5%	19.9%	33.0%	—	40.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	56.8%	20.0%	25.8%	—	30.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	81.1%	65.5%	25.5%	65.5%	41.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	58.9%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	63.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	88%	81.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	78.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	78.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	76.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗