KMCI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

59%

53%

38%

37%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.2¢Risks 50.20u

EPSNO 49.8¢Risks 49.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.80u · EPS −49.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	27.2%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	50.6%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	1.1%	0.2%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	25.2%	23.0%	1.7%	—	26.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	41.3%	15.2%	26.6%	—	33.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	49.2%	15.1%	20.0%	—	24.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	75.2%	57.9%	19.5%	57.9%	33.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	50.8%	—	—	34.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	77.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	76.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	53%	76.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	73.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	74.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261025-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 76°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗