KMCI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

59%

53%

38%

37%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.2¢Risks 50.20u

EPSNO 49.8¢Risks 49.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.80u · EPS −49.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	71.7%	40.1%	73.3%	65.7%	18.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	71.7%	40.1%	73.3%	65.7%	18.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	71.7%	40.1%	73.3%	65.7%	18.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	71.7%	40.1%	73.3%	65.7%	18.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:51+00:00	71.7%	40.1%	67.4%	65.7%	18.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	71.7%	40.1%	67.4%	65.7%	18.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	71.7%	40.1%	67.4%	65.7%	18.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	71.7%	40.1%	67.4%	65.7%	18.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	42.4%	40.1%	67.4%	65.7%	18.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	42.4%	40.1%	67.4%	65.7%	18.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	42.4%	37.4%	67.4%	65.7%	18.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	42.4%	37.4%	67.4%	65.7%	18.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	42.4%	37.4%	72.8%	65.7%	18.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00	42.4%	37.4%	72.8%	65.7%	18.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	42.4%	37.4%	72.8%	65.7%	18.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	70.5%	37.4%	72.8%	38.4%	53.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	70.5%	37.4%	72.8%	38.4%	53.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	70.5%	37.4%	72.8%	38.4%	53.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	70.5%	37.4%	72.8%	38.4%	53.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	70.5%	37.4%	72.8%	38.4%	53.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	70.5%	37.4%	63.0%	38.4%	53.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	70.5%	37.4%	63.0%	38.4%	53.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	70.5%	37.4%	63.0%	38.4%	53.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	58.9%	37.4%	63.0%	38.4%	53.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	58.9%	37.4%	63.0%	38.4%	53.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	58.9%	37.4%	63.0%	38.4%	53.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	58.9%	37.4%	63.0%	38.4%	53.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	77.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	76.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	53%	76.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	73.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	74.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261025-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 76°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗