KMCI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

58%

56%

52%

38%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 54.3¢Risks 54.30u

EPSNO 45.7¢Risks 45.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.70u · EPS −45.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	22.4%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	44.2%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	0.7%	0.1%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	19.9%	18.0%	1.1%	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	34.3%	11.3%	21.0%	—	27.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	41.7%	11.0%	15.1%	—	18.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	68.4%	50.0%	14.5%	50.0%	26.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	42.7%	—	—	27.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	79.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	77.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	77.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	76.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	75.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	74.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗