KMCI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

61%

54%

13%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.1¢Risks 34.10u

WN2NO 65.9¢Risks 65.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.90u · WN2 −65.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	10.6%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	1.4%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	1.7%	47.3%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	36.9%	0.5%	4.9%	—	21.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	42.7%	3.5%	29.1%	35.7%	9.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	2.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	75.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	61%	76.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	74.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	66.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	65.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗