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KMCI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
62%
ICON
61%
EPS
54%
HRES
13%
WN2
7%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 34.1¢Risks 34.10u
VS
WN2NO 65.9¢Risks 65.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.90u · WN2 −65.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:0010-19 11:2110-19 19:4510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:0075.1%53.7%42.2%13.5%21.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:0075.1%53.7%42.2%13.5%21.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0075.1%53.7%42.2%13.5%21.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:0060.3%53.7%42.2%13.5%21.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0060.3%53.7%42.2%13.5%21.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:0060.3%53.7%42.2%13.5%21.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:0060.3%53.7%42.2%13.5%21.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:0060.3%53.7%42.2%13.5%21.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:0060.3%53.7%3.6%13.5%21.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:0060.3%53.7%3.6%13.5%21.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:0060.3%53.7%3.6%13.5%21.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:0078.3%53.7%3.6%13.2%60.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:0078.3%53.7%3.6%13.2%60.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:0078.3%53.7%3.6%13.2%60.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:0078.3%53.7%3.6%13.2%60.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:0078.3%53.7%3.6%13.2%60.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:0078.3%53.7%6.6%13.2%60.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:0078.3%53.7%6.6%13.2%60.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:0078.3%53.7%6.6%13.2%60.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:0061.6%53.7%6.6%13.2%60.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:0061.6%53.7%6.6%13.2%60.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:0061.6%53.7%6.6%13.2%60.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single62%75.2°F5.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
ICON61%76.2°F10.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble54%74.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend53%74.0°F7.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES13%66.3°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%65.8°F5.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗