KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

91%

82%

69%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.7¢Risks 82.70u

HRESNO 17.3¢Risks 17.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.30u · HRES −17.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	—	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	45.2%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	71.5%	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	28.9%	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	18.4%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	70.8%	31.1%	39.6%	—	76.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	84.4%	38.5%	82.0%	—	77.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	73.0%	33.0%	73.6%	—	73.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	81.1%	61.8%	70.5%	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	41.1%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	89.5%	74.2%	74.2%	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	92.2%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	62.1%	61.3%	19.0%	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	83.9%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	60.9%	66.1%	19.0%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	74.7%	58.5%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	74.5%	58.7%	19.7%	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	86.0%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	67.9%	58.2%	41.8%	—	52.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	84.4%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	91.5%	22.1%	78.7%	—	33.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	88.2%	29.6%	1.6%	—	46.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	86.0%	48.8%	69.0%	—	65.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	87.4%	48.8%	54.8%	—	58.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	92.0%	41.3%	47.5%	52.5%	62.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	90.8%	43.6%	43.6%	—	55.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	88.7%	50.0%	46.0%	54.0%	54.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	93.3%	50.0%	50.0%	—	59.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	92.2%	65.5%	54.3%	62.8%	64.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	80.8%	56.0%	60.5%	—	61.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	89.0%	66.8%	65.4%	81.9%	63.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	90.1%	70.5%	74.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	81.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0010
IFS Ensemble	94%	80.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0035
AIFS Single	91%	81.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0079
ICON	82%	79.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0331
IFS HRES	69%	78.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0986
National Blend	63%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1347
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗