KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

91%

82%

69%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.7¢Risks 82.70u

HRESNO 17.3¢Risks 17.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.30u · HRES −17.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:19:47+00:00	86.7%	99.6%	87.2%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	86.7%	99.6%	87.2%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	86.7%	99.6%	87.2%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:41+00:00	90.2%	99.6%	87.2%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	90.1%	99.6%	87.2%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:30+00:00	90.1%	99.7%	87.2%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	90.1%	99.7%	87.2%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	90.1%	99.7%	87.2%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	90.1%	99.7%	88.0%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	90.1%	99.7%	88.0%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00	90.1%	99.7%	88.0%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	92.9%	99.7%	88.0%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	92.9%	99.7%	88.0%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00	92.9%	99.7%	88.0%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	92.9%	99.7%	88.0%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	92.9%	99.7%	88.0%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	92.9%	99.7%	91.2%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	92.9%	99.7%	91.2%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:11+00:00	92.9%	99.7%	91.2%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	91.2%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	91.2%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	91.2%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:16+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	91.2%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	91.2%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	91.8%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	91.8%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	91.8%	87.5%	78.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:00+00:00	92.1%	99.7%	91.8%	83.2%	90.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	92.1%	99.7%	91.8%	83.2%	90.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	92.1%	99.7%	91.8%	83.2%	90.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	92.1%	99.7%	91.8%	83.2%	90.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	92.1%	99.7%	91.8%	83.2%	90.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00	92.1%	99.7%	96.1%	83.2%	90.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00	92.1%	99.8%	96.1%	83.2%	90.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	92.1%	99.8%	96.1%	83.2%	90.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	89.3%	99.8%	96.1%	83.2%	90.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	89.3%	99.8%	96.0%	83.2%	90.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:23+00:00	84.3%	79.2%	96.5%	68.7%	90.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	84.3%	79.7%	96.5%	68.7%	90.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	84.3%	79.7%	96.5%	68.7%	90.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	84.3%	79.7%	97.1%	68.7%	90.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	84.3%	79.7%	97.1%	68.7%	90.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	84.3%	79.7%	97.1%	68.7%	90.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	82.5%	79.7%	97.1%	68.7%	83.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	82.5%	79.7%	97.1%	68.7%	83.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	82.5%	79.7%	97.1%	68.7%	83.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	82.5%	79.7%	97.1%	68.7%	83.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	82.5%	79.7%	97.1%	78.2%	83.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00	82.5%	79.7%	96.9%	78.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:11+00:00	82.5%	79.7%	96.9%	78.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	82.5%	79.7%	96.9%	78.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	84.9%	79.7%	96.9%	78.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	84.9%	79.7%	96.9%	78.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	84.9%	79.7%	96.9%	78.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	84.9%	79.7%	96.9%	78.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:25+00:00	84.9%	79.7%	96.9%	78.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	84.9%	79.7%	97.4%	78.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	84.9%	79.7%	97.4%	78.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	84.9%	79.7%	97.4%	78.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00	90.2%	79.7%	97.4%	68.6%	81.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	90.2%	79.7%	97.4%	68.6%	81.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	90.2%	79.7%	97.4%	68.6%	81.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	90.2%	79.7%	97.4%	68.6%	81.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	90.2%	79.7%	97.4%	68.6%	81.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	90.2%	94.1%	96.8%	68.6%	81.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	90.2%	94.1%	96.8%	68.6%	81.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	90.2%	94.1%	96.8%	68.6%	81.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	91.0%	94.1%	96.8%	68.6%	81.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	91.1%	94.1%	96.8%	68.6%	81.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	81.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0010
IFS Ensemble	94%	80.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0035
AIFS Single	91%	81.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0079
ICON	82%	79.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0331
IFS HRES	69%	78.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0986
National Blend	63%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1347
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗