KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

55%

46%

33%

20%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.7¢Risks 39.70u

HRESNO 60.3¢Risks 60.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.30u · HRES −60.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	18.9%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	41.3%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	8.5%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	4.0%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	36.9%	8.5%	12.6%	—	43.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	53.6%	11.3%	50.0%	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	36.5%	8.1%	37.2%	—	36.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	45.2%	24.2%	32.3%	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	10.6%	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	58.3%	34.5%	34.5%	—	33.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	63.4%	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	21.4%	20.8%	2.4%	—	25.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	44.6%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	19.0%	23.0%	2.1%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	30.1%	16.5%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	28.7%	15.9%	1.9%	—	7.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	43.0%	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	20.4%	13.9%	6.7%	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	37.5%	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	50.0%	1.6%	28.2%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	41.0%	2.6%	0.0%	—	6.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	35.2%	6.8%	16.8%	—	14.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	35.9%	6.2%	8.2%	—	9.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	43.8%	3.7%	5.2%	6.7%	10.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	38.5%	3.7%	3.7%	—	6.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	31.9%	4.6%	3.7%	5.7%	5.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	40.3%	4.0%	4.0%	—	6.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	34.5%	7.8%	4.4%	6.8%	7.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	15.3%	4.1%	5.1%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	22.6%	6.1%	5.7%	14.2%	5.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	21.6%	6.3%	7.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	59%	82.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.3528
IFS Ensemble	55%	81.8°F	2.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2981
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
WeatherNext 2	46%	81.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.2088
National Blend	34%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1176
ICON	33%	79.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1102
IFS HRES	20%	77.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0400

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗