KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

55%

46%

33%

20%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.7¢Risks 39.70u

HRESNO 60.3¢Risks 60.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.30u · HRES −60.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:37+00:00	62.7%	67.7%	73.6%	44.5%	72.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	62.7%	67.7%	73.6%	44.5%	72.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	62.7%	67.7%	73.6%	44.5%	72.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	62.7%	67.7%	73.6%	44.5%	72.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	62.7%	67.7%	73.6%	44.5%	72.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	62.7%	67.7%	73.6%	44.5%	72.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	63.6%	67.7%	73.6%	44.5%	33.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	63.6%	67.7%	73.6%	44.5%	33.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	63.6%	67.7%	73.6%	44.5%	33.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	63.6%	67.7%	73.6%	44.5%	33.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:30+00:00	63.6%	67.7%	73.6%	46.8%	33.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:45+00:00	63.6%	53.1%	62.6%	46.8%	33.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	63.6%	53.1%	62.6%	46.8%	33.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	63.6%	53.1%	62.6%	46.8%	33.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	62.8%	53.1%	62.6%	46.8%	33.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	62.8%	53.1%	62.6%	46.8%	34.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	62.8%	54.6%	62.6%	46.8%	34.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	62.8%	54.6%	62.6%	46.8%	34.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	62.8%	54.6%	62.6%	46.8%	34.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	62.8%	54.6%	41.5%	46.8%	34.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	62.8%	54.6%	41.5%	46.8%	34.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	62.8%	54.6%	41.5%	46.8%	34.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	53.5%	54.6%	41.5%	20.0%	33.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	53.5%	54.6%	41.5%	20.0%	33.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	53.5%	54.6%	41.5%	20.0%	33.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	53.5%	54.6%	41.5%	20.0%	33.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	53.5%	54.6%	41.5%	20.0%	33.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	53.5%	54.6%	45.7%	20.0%	33.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	53.5%	54.6%	45.7%	20.0%	33.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	53.5%	54.6%	45.7%	20.0%	33.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	59.4%	54.6%	45.7%	20.0%	33.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	59.4%	54.6%	45.7%	20.0%	33.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	59.4%	54.6%	45.7%	20.0%	33.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	59%	82.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.3528
IFS Ensemble	55%	81.8°F	2.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2981
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
WeatherNext 2	46%	81.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.2088
National Blend	34%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1176
ICON	33%	79.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1102
IFS HRES	20%	77.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0400

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗