KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≤ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

28%

15%

12%

10%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 22.9¢Risks 22.90u

WN2NO 77.1¢Risks 77.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.10u · WN2 −77.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	60.8%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	34.1%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	76.4%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	85.7%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	35.6%	74.8%	67.0%	—	29.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	20.4%	68.3%	23.2%	—	28.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	33.7%	73.6%	33.0%	—	33.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	24.8%	46.0%	36.7%	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	66.6%	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	14.8%	33.0%	33.0%	—	33.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	11.5%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	46.5%	47.4%	86.4%	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	22.2%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	48.2%	42.7%	86.7%	—	67.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	33.5%	50.9%	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	33.9%	51.0%	86.4%	—	67.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	20.4%	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	41.8%	52.1%	67.9%	—	58.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	22.8%	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	13.7%	85.1%	30.1%	—	76.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	18.3%	79.4%	99.2%	—	64.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	21.5%	62.6%	41.9%	—	45.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	19.9%	63.0%	57.2%	—	53.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	13.7%	70.2%	64.6%	59.9%	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	15.8%	68.7%	68.7%	—	57.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	19.1%	63.2%	66.9%	59.3%	59.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	12.4%	63.7%	63.7%	—	54.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	14.6%	48.5%	60.1%	51.4%	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	31.1%	59.0%	54.5%	—	53.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	20.3%	48.4%	50.0%	30.3%	51.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	19.2%	45.1%	40.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	36%	78.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1267
National Blend	33%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1076
IFS HRES	28%	79.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0767
AIFS Single	15%	81.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0222
IFS Ensemble	12%	80.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0151
NWS forecast	12%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0149
WeatherNext 2	10%	81.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0104

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 77°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-LE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Orlando stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗