KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≤ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

28%

15%

12%

10%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 22.9¢Risks 22.90u

WN2NO 77.1¢Risks 77.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.10u · WN2 −77.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:30+00:00	11.2%	1.7%	5.5%	23.6%	33.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:45+00:00	11.2%	5.3%	8.1%	23.6%	33.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	11.2%	5.3%	8.1%	23.6%	33.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	11.2%	5.3%	8.1%	23.6%	33.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	11.6%	5.3%	8.1%	23.6%	33.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	11.6%	5.3%	8.1%	23.6%	33.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	11.6%	4.9%	8.1%	23.6%	33.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	11.6%	4.9%	8.1%	23.6%	33.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	11.6%	4.9%	8.1%	23.6%	33.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	11.6%	4.9%	19.5%	23.6%	33.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	11.6%	4.9%	19.5%	23.6%	33.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	11.6%	4.9%	19.5%	23.6%	33.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	16.9%	4.9%	19.5%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	16.9%	4.9%	19.5%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	16.9%	4.9%	19.5%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	16.9%	4.9%	19.5%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	16.9%	4.9%	19.5%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	16.9%	4.9%	16.7%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	16.9%	4.9%	16.7%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	16.9%	4.9%	16.7%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	13.4%	4.9%	16.7%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	13.4%	4.9%	16.7%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	13.4%	4.9%	16.7%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:01+00:00	13.4%	4.9%	16.7%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	13.4%	4.9%	16.7%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	13.4%	4.9%	9.4%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	13.4%	4.9%	9.4%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	13.4%	4.9%	9.4%	51.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:21+00:00	26.5%	4.9%	9.4%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	26.5%	4.9%	9.4%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	26.5%	4.9%	9.4%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	26.5%	4.9%	9.4%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	26.5%	4.9%	9.4%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	26.5%	4.9%	9.1%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	26.5%	27.3%	9.1%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00	26.5%	27.3%	9.1%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	8.8%	27.4%	9.1%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	8.8%	27.4%	9.1%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00	8.8%	26.0%	9.1%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	8.8%	26.0%	9.1%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00	8.8%	26.0%	5.1%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	8.8%	26.0%	5.1%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	8.8%	26.0%	5.1%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	8.8%	26.0%	5.1%	49.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	5.1%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	5.1%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	5.1%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	5.1%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	9.6%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	9.6%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	9.6%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	9.6%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	9.6%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	9.6%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	9.6%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	9.6%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	6.9%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	6.9%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	25.6%	26.0%	6.9%	42.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	23.1%	26.0%	6.9%	42.9%	14.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	23.1%	26.0%	6.9%	42.9%	14.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	23.1%	26.0%	6.9%	42.9%	14.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	23.1%	26.0%	6.9%	42.9%	14.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:53+00:00	23.1%	26.0%	6.9%	42.9%	14.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	23.1%	33.1%	6.9%	42.9%	14.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	23.1%	33.1%	6.9%	42.9%	14.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	23.1%	33.1%	6.9%	42.9%	14.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:13+00:00	22.3%	33.1%	6.9%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	22.3%	33.4%	6.9%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:23+00:00	22.3%	32.8%	6.9%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	22.3%	32.5%	6.9%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	22.3%	32.5%	6.9%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	22.3%	32.5%	5.7%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	22.3%	32.5%	5.7%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	22.3%	32.5%	5.7%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	24.6%	32.5%	5.7%	40.4%	24.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	24.6%	32.5%	5.7%	40.4%	24.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	24.6%	32.5%	5.7%	40.4%	24.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	24.6%	32.5%	5.7%	40.4%	24.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	24.6%	32.5%	5.7%	29.6%	24.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00	24.6%	32.5%	6.1%	29.6%	24.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:11+00:00	24.6%	32.5%	6.1%	29.6%	24.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	24.6%	32.5%	6.1%	29.6%	24.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	21.6%	32.5%	6.1%	29.6%	24.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	21.6%	32.5%	6.1%	29.6%	24.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	21.6%	32.5%	6.1%	29.6%	24.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	21.6%	32.5%	6.1%	29.6%	24.9%
2026-10-17T04:41:25+00:00	21.6%	32.5%	6.1%	29.6%	24.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	21.6%	32.5%	5.3%	29.6%	24.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	21.6%	32.5%	5.3%	29.6%	24.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	21.6%	32.5%	5.3%	29.6%	24.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00	15.0%	32.5%	5.3%	41.5%	26.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	15.0%	32.5%	5.3%	41.5%	26.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	15.0%	32.5%	5.3%	41.5%	26.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	15.0%	32.5%	5.3%	41.5%	26.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	15.0%	32.5%	5.3%	41.5%	26.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	15.0%	12.3%	6.5%	41.5%	26.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	15.0%	12.3%	6.5%	41.5%	26.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	15.0%	12.3%	6.5%	41.5%	26.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	13.8%	12.3%	6.5%	41.5%	26.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	13.8%	12.3%	6.5%	41.5%	26.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	13.8%	12.3%	6.5%	41.5%	26.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	13.8%	12.3%	6.5%	41.5%	26.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	13.8%	12.3%	7.4%	41.5%	26.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	13.8%	12.3%	7.4%	41.5%	26.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	13.8%	12.3%	7.4%	41.5%	26.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	13.8%	12.3%	7.4%	41.5%	26.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	14.3%	12.3%	7.4%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	14.3%	12.3%	7.4%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	14.3%	12.3%	7.4%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	14.3%	12.3%	7.4%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	14.3%	12.3%	10.8%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	14.3%	12.3%	10.8%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	14.3%	12.3%	10.8%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	14.3%	12.3%	10.8%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	14.9%	12.3%	10.8%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	14.9%	12.3%	10.8%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	14.9%	12.3%	10.8%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	14.9%	12.3%	10.8%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	14.9%	12.3%	10.2%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	14.9%	12.3%	10.2%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	14.9%	12.3%	10.2%	27.7%	35.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	14.9%	12.3%	10.2%	27.7%	35.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	36%	78.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1267
National Blend	33%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1076
IFS HRES	28%	79.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0767
AIFS Single	15%	81.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0222
IFS Ensemble	12%	80.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0151
NWS forecast	12%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0149
WeatherNext 2	10%	81.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0104

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 77°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-LE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Orlando stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗