KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

90%

69%

63%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.0¢Risks 80.00u

ICONNO 20.0¢Risks 20.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.00u · ICON −20.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	79.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	66.4%	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	51.3%	55.4%	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	70.2%	58.4%	44.4%	—	74.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.0%	78.0%	70.9%	84.8%	—	78.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	92.2%	67.0%	75.5%	—	77.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	92.5%	89.2%	36.7%	—	68.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.7%	41.1%	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	58.3%	84.3%	33.0%	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	76.7%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	67.0%	83.3%	34.6%	—	52.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	92.8%	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	68.6%	78.4%	63.6%	—	56.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	67.4%	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	76.0%	59.6%	84.1%	—	33.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	72.6%	55.0%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	64.1%	55.1%	74.1%	—	65.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	67.4%	74.7%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	65.9%	75.3%	46.7%	0.3%	60.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	68.5%	65.4%	1.2%	—	56.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	66.9%	55.8%	44.2%	48.8%	57.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	53.6%	69.6%	56.0%	—	53.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.1%	55.0%	59.9%	55.0%	1.2%	62.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	55.1%	70.9%	61.5%	—	59.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	36.8%	76.0%	54.0%	68.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	43.1%	76.8%	40.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	51.4%	74.4%	74.4%	70.7%	61.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	59.0%	77.6%	57.5%	—	42.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	65.4%	77.4%	54.7%	43.7%	36.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	59.8%	71.9%	58.2%	—	41.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	83.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0011
IFS Ensemble	93%	81.4°F	2.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0045
AIFS Single	90%	82.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0100
IFS HRES	69%	79.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0980
National Blend	64%	79.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1332
ICON	63%	78.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1347
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗