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KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
97%
EPS
93%
AIFS
90%
HRES
69%
ICON
63%
Consensus
87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 80.0¢Risks 80.00u
VS
ICONNO 20.0¢Risks 20.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.00u · ICON −20.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-17T04:41:25+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00AIFS Single: 90.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-17T04:41:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T04:41:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS HRES: 68.9% · 2026-10-17T04:41:25+00:00IFS HRES: 68.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00IFS HRES: 68.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS HRES: 68.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS HRES: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00IFS HRES: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS HRES: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS HRES: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00IFS HRES: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:25+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:25+00:0087.9%63.1%97.8%68.9%70.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:0087.9%63.1%97.3%68.9%70.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:0087.9%63.1%97.3%68.9%70.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:0087.9%63.1%97.3%68.9%70.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:0089.0%63.1%97.3%68.7%63.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:0089.0%63.1%97.3%68.7%63.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:0089.0%63.1%97.3%68.7%63.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0089.0%63.1%97.3%68.7%63.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0089.0%63.1%97.3%68.7%63.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:0089.0%93.3%96.7%68.7%63.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0089.0%93.3%96.7%68.7%63.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0089.0%93.3%96.7%68.7%63.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:0089.9%93.3%96.7%68.7%63.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:0090.0%93.3%96.7%68.7%63.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 297%83.2°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0011
IFS Ensemble93%81.4°F2.6°F2026-10-17 00:000.0045
AIFS Single90%82.7°F4.1°F2026-10-17 06:000.0100
IFS HRES69%79.5°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0980
National Blend64%79.0°F4.3°F2026-10-17 06:000.1332
ICON63%78.7°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.1347
NWS forecast56%78.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:000.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗