KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

74%

48%

41%

27%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.2¢Risks 53.20u

HRESNO 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.80u · HRES −46.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	41.0%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	26.0%	29.4%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	43.0%	31.1%	19.9%	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	51.5%	42.7%	61.6%	—	51.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	74.2%	37.2%	46.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	73.9%	67.0%	12.7%	—	37.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	14.8%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	26.5%	56.6%	10.1%	—	16.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	44.9%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	33.0%	53.5%	10.1%	—	20.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	71.3%	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	33.0%	44.5%	28.2%	—	22.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	30.9%	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	39.4%	23.2%	51.0%	—	8.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	34.4%	19.0%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	25.1%	18.3%	34.9%	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	27.1%	34.5%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	24.7%	34.1%	11.9%	0.0%	20.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	25.8%	23.1%	0.0%	—	16.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	23.3%	15.3%	9.4%	11.6%	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	13.2%	24.4%	14.5%	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	13.0%	15.9%	13.0%	0.0%	17.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	12.2%	22.8%	15.8%	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	4.6%	26.2%	10.7%	19.1%	16.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	5.8%	25.3%	5.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	7.8%	21.2%	21.2%	18.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	79%	85.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	81.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	80.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	79.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	78.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗