KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

74%

48%

41%

27%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.2¢Risks 53.20u

HRESNO 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.80u · HRES −46.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:32+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	81.2%	67.6%	63.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	81.7%	67.6%	63.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	81.7%	67.6%	63.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:09+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	81.7%	67.6%	63.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	81.7%	67.6%	63.8%
2026-10-13T08:03:03+00:00	84.1%	95.4%	81.7%	64.3%	70.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	84.1%	95.4%	81.7%	64.3%	70.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	84.1%	95.4%	81.7%	64.3%	70.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	84.1%	95.4%	81.7%	64.3%	70.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:15+00:00	84.1%	87.0%	82.1%	64.3%	70.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	84.1%	87.0%	82.1%	64.3%	70.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	84.1%	87.0%	82.1%	64.3%	70.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	84.1%	87.0%	82.1%	64.3%	70.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	81.2%	87.0%	82.0%	64.3%	70.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	81.2%	86.1%	82.0%	64.3%	70.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	81.2%	86.1%	82.0%	64.3%	70.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	81.2%	86.1%	82.0%	64.3%	70.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	81.2%	86.1%	80.3%	64.3%	70.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	81.2%	86.1%	80.3%	64.3%	70.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	81.2%	86.1%	80.3%	64.3%	70.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	83.2%	86.1%	80.3%	64.3%	84.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	83.2%	86.1%	80.3%	64.3%	84.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	83.2%	86.1%	80.3%	64.3%	84.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:10+00:00	83.2%	86.1%	80.3%	64.3%	84.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	83.2%	86.1%	80.3%	61.4%	84.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	83.2%	86.1%	83.1%	61.4%	84.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	83.2%	86.1%	83.1%	61.4%	84.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	83.2%	86.1%	83.1%	61.4%	84.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	75.7%	86.1%	83.1%	61.4%	84.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	75.7%	86.1%	83.1%	61.4%	84.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:01+00:00	76.6%	66.3%	67.8%	23.9%	47.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	76.6%	66.3%	67.8%	23.9%	47.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	76.6%	66.3%	76.0%	23.9%	47.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	76.6%	66.3%	76.0%	23.9%	47.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	76.6%	66.3%	76.0%	23.9%	47.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:21+00:00	47.4%	66.3%	76.0%	27.4%	47.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	47.4%	66.3%	76.0%	27.4%	47.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	47.4%	66.3%	76.0%	27.4%	47.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	47.4%	66.3%	76.0%	27.4%	47.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	47.4%	66.3%	76.0%	27.4%	47.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	47.4%	66.3%	74.1%	27.4%	47.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	47.4%	40.6%	74.1%	27.4%	47.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00	47.4%	40.6%	74.1%	27.4%	47.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	79.0%	40.6%	74.1%	27.4%	47.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	79.0%	40.6%	74.1%	27.4%	47.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	79%	85.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	81.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	80.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	79.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	78.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗