KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

49%

41%

34%

14%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.55u

HRESNO 61.5¢Risks 61.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.45u · HRES −61.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	28.9%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	16.3%	18.9%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	29.8%	19.9%	11.5%	—	34.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	37.1%	29.1%	47.1%	—	37.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	60.6%	23.9%	32.3%	—	35.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	59.5%	51.6%	6.2%	—	23.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	7.3%	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	14.8%	40.1%	4.5%	—	8.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	28.8%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	19.0%	36.3%	4.3%	—	10.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	54.5%	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	18.4%	27.4%	14.9%	—	11.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	16.5%	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	22.5%	11.1%	32.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	18.3%	8.4%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	11.8%	7.8%	18.3%	—	12.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	12.7%	17.6%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	10.9%	16.9%	4.2%	0.0%	8.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	11.2%	9.7%	0.0%	—	6.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	9.4%	5.4%	2.9%	3.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	4.3%	9.7%	4.8%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	4.0%	5.2%	4.0%	0.0%	5.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	3.5%	8.2%	4.9%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.9%	9.5%	2.8%	6.1%	5.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.2%	8.6%	1.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.6%	6.3%	6.3%	5.1%	2.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.0%	6.5%	1.8%	—	0.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.4%	5.2%	1.2%	0.6%	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	2.8%	1.1%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	85.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.3919
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
WeatherNext 2	49%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.2401
IFS Ensemble	41%	82.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1689
ICON	34%	81.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1176
National Blend	27%	82.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0724
IFS HRES	14%	77.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0210

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗