KMCO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

65%

34%

28%

23%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.7¢Risks 45.70u

ICONNO 54.3¢Risks 54.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.30u · ICON −54.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	75.6%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	57.8%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.0%	20.8%	58.1%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	31.1%	73.1%	13.7%	—	55.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	60.8%	76.3%	22.1%	—	46.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	22.8%	77.8%	27.7%	—	30.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	55.6%	64.8%	14.9%	—	28.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	13.5%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	53.3%	41.7%	34.5%	—	29.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	44.0%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	46.5%	37.1%	26.9%	—	17.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	37.6%	37.6%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	34.7%	36.4%	25.1%	—	23.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	39.7%	53.8%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	30.4%	45.1%	31.3%	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	29.1%	40.1%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	34.0%	33.0%	13.4%	0.0%	21.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	27.1%	46.8%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	33.1%	46.7%	9.4%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	27.6%	23.1%	0.0%	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	22.4%	25.1%	9.4%	0.0%	18.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	22.5%	24.4%	7.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	15.1%	20.8%	10.6%	19.1%	15.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	19.1%	29.1%	7.7%	—	12.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	28.4%	23.0%	9.5%	15.7%	12.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	36.3%	44.4%	15.6%	—	16.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	44.2%	48.5%	21.2%	33.1%	13.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	41.0%	27.2%	—	8.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	68%	82.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	82.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	80.5°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	79.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	23%	78.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗