KMCO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

65%

34%

28%

23%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.7¢Risks 45.70u

ICONNO 54.3¢Risks 54.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.30u · ICON −54.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:15+00:00	85.3%	95.8%	87.8%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	85.3%	95.8%	87.8%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	85.3%	95.8%	87.8%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	85.3%	95.8%	87.8%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	83.2%	95.8%	87.8%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	87.8%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	87.8%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	87.8%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	84.7%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	84.7%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	84.7%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	86.1%	95.4%	84.7%	55.0%	56.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	86.1%	95.4%	84.7%	55.0%	56.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	86.1%	95.4%	84.7%	55.0%	56.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:10+00:00	86.1%	95.4%	84.7%	55.0%	56.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	86.1%	95.4%	84.7%	69.9%	56.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	86.1%	95.4%	86.5%	69.9%	56.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	86.1%	95.4%	86.5%	69.9%	56.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	86.1%	95.4%	86.5%	69.9%	56.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	86.5%	69.9%	56.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	83.2%	95.4%	86.5%	69.9%	56.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:01+00:00	65.8%	75.9%	76.0%	33.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	65.8%	75.9%	76.0%	33.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	65.8%	75.9%	79.2%	33.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	65.8%	75.9%	79.2%	33.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	65.8%	75.9%	79.2%	33.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:21+00:00	43.6%	75.9%	79.2%	23.9%	71.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	43.6%	75.9%	79.2%	23.9%	71.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	43.6%	75.9%	79.2%	23.9%	71.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	43.6%	75.9%	79.2%	23.9%	71.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	43.6%	75.9%	79.2%	23.9%	71.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	43.6%	75.9%	78.2%	23.9%	71.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	78.2%	23.9%	71.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	78.2%	23.9%	71.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	82.3%	50.0%	78.2%	23.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	82.3%	50.0%	78.2%	23.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00	82.3%	51.4%	78.2%	23.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	82.3%	51.4%	78.2%	23.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00	82.3%	51.4%	84.1%	23.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	82.3%	51.4%	84.1%	23.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	82.3%	51.4%	84.1%	23.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	82.3%	51.4%	84.1%	23.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00	46.0%	51.4%	84.1%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	46.0%	51.4%	84.1%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	46.0%	51.4%	84.1%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	46.0%	51.4%	84.1%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	46.0%	50.0%	76.0%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	46.0%	50.0%	76.0%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	46.0%	50.0%	76.0%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	53.2%	50.0%	76.0%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	53.2%	50.0%	76.0%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	53.2%	50.0%	76.0%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	53.2%	50.0%	76.0%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	53.2%	50.0%	76.0%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	53.2%	50.0%	73.7%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	53.2%	50.0%	73.7%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	53.2%	50.0%	73.7%	32.6%	69.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	47.4%	50.0%	73.7%	32.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	47.4%	50.0%	73.7%	32.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	47.4%	50.0%	73.7%	32.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	47.4%	50.0%	73.7%	32.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:53+00:00	47.4%	50.0%	73.7%	32.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	47.4%	23.8%	75.8%	32.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	47.4%	23.8%	75.8%	32.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	47.4%	23.8%	75.8%	32.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:14+00:00	55.2%	23.8%	75.8%	33.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	55.2%	23.8%	75.8%	33.0%	60.5%
2026-10-19T04:30:32+00:00	52.9%	36.9%	58.9%	35.7%	20.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	52.9%	36.9%	66.3%	35.7%	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	52.9%	36.9%	66.3%	35.7%	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	52.9%	36.9%	66.3%	35.7%	20.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00	59.0%	36.9%	66.3%	32.3%	9.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	59.0%	36.9%	66.3%	32.3%	9.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	59.0%	36.9%	66.3%	32.3%	9.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	59.0%	36.9%	66.3%	32.3%	9.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00	59.0%	36.9%	66.3%	32.3%	9.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	59.0%	35.4%	68.5%	32.3%	9.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	59.0%	35.4%	68.5%	32.3%	9.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	59.0%	35.4%	68.5%	32.3%	9.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	59.0%	35.4%	68.5%	32.3%	9.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	59.1%	35.4%	68.5%	32.3%	10.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	64.9%	33.8%	64.7%	27.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	64.9%	33.8%	64.7%	27.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	64.9%	33.8%	68.5%	27.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	64.9%	33.8%	68.5%	27.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	64.9%	33.8%	68.5%	27.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	65.2%	33.8%	68.5%	27.7%	22.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	65.2%	33.8%	68.5%	27.7%	22.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	65.2%	33.8%	68.5%	27.7%	22.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	65.2%	33.8%	68.5%	27.7%	22.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	68%	82.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	82.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	80.5°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	79.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	23%	78.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗