KMCO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

83%

81%

49%

45%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.2¢Risks 70.15u

ICONNO 29.8¢Risks 29.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.85u · ICON −29.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	70.4%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	51.3%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	16.3%	51.3%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	25.2%	67.0%	10.2%	—	48.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	53.6%	70.3%	17.0%	—	39.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	17.4%	71.7%	21.6%	—	23.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	47.6%	57.1%	10.8%	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	9.5%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	45.0%	33.8%	27.2%	—	22.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	35.8%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	37.9%	29.1%	20.2%	—	12.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	29.4%	29.4%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	26.6%	28.2%	18.4%	—	17.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	30.9%	44.3%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	22.5%	35.7%	23.2%	—	13.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	21.1%	30.8%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	25.1%	24.3%	8.6%	0.0%	14.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	19.0%	36.5%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	23.8%	36.1%	5.6%	—	12.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	19.0%	15.4%	0.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	14.7%	16.8%	5.4%	0.0%	11.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	14.5%	16.0%	4.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	8.9%	13.0%	5.9%	11.8%	8.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	11.5%	19.1%	4.0%	—	7.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	18.2%	14.1%	5.0%	8.9%	6.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	24.2%	31.2%	8.6%	—	9.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	30.5%	34.5%	12.2%	21.2%	7.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	27.2%	16.2%	—	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	85.9°F	2.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	87.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	87.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	82.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	45%	81.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261020-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 83°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗