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KMCO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
96%
WN2
83%
AIFS
81%
HRES
49%
ICON
45%
Consensus
83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 70.2¢Risks 70.15u
VS
ICONNO 29.8¢Risks 29.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.85u · ICON −29.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-13T08:03:03+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-13T08:03:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00IFS HRES: 48.7% · 2026-10-13T08:03:03+00:00IFS HRES: 48.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS HRES: 48.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00IFS HRES: 48.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-13T08:03:03+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:0010-13 08:0310-13 09:3410-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:03:03+00:0080.8%95.5%83.0%48.7%44.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:0080.8%95.5%83.0%48.7%44.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:0080.8%95.5%83.0%48.7%44.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:0080.8%95.5%83.0%48.7%44.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble96%85.9°F2.0°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 283%87.6°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
AIFS Single81%87.4°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
National Blend56%83.0°F3.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS HRES49%82.3°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
ICON45%81.2°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261020-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 83°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗