KMCO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

52%

50%

37%

23%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

HRESNO 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.85u · HRES −57.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	64.7%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	44.8%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	12.4%	44.6%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	19.9%	60.4%	7.4%	—	41.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	46.4%	63.6%	12.8%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	12.9%	64.9%	16.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	39.7%	49.2%	7.5%	—	16.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	6.5%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	36.9%	26.5%	20.7%	—	16.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	28.1%	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	29.9%	22.1%	14.6%	—	8.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	22.2%	22.2%	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	19.6%	20.9%	12.9%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	23.1%	35.2%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	15.9%	27.1%	16.5%	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	14.6%	22.6%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	17.6%	17.0%	5.2%	0.0%	9.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	12.7%	27.1%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	16.2%	26.4%	3.1%	—	7.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	12.3%	9.7%	0.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	9.0%	10.5%	2.9%	0.0%	6.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	8.7%	9.7%	2.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	4.9%	7.5%	3.0%	6.7%	4.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	6.4%	11.5%	1.9%	—	3.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	10.7%	7.9%	2.4%	4.6%	3.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	14.7%	20.1%	4.3%	—	4.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	19.1%	22.2%	6.3%	12.2%	3.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	16.2%	8.6%	—	1.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	61%	84.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	83.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	83.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	37%	81.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	78.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗