KMCO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

52%

50%

37%

23%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

HRESNO 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.85u · HRES −57.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:38+00:00	72.7%	78.0%	75.9%	58.1%	48.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	72.7%	78.0%	75.9%	58.1%	48.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	72.7%	78.0%	75.9%	58.1%	48.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	72.7%	78.0%	75.9%	58.1%	48.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	72.7%	78.0%	75.9%	58.1%	48.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	72.7%	78.0%	75.9%	58.1%	48.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	74.5%	78.0%	75.9%	58.1%	67.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	74.5%	78.0%	75.9%	58.1%	67.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	74.5%	78.0%	75.9%	58.1%	67.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	74.5%	78.0%	75.9%	58.1%	67.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:31+00:00	74.5%	78.0%	75.9%	57.3%	67.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:45+00:00	74.5%	48.6%	67.6%	57.3%	67.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	74.5%	48.6%	67.6%	57.3%	67.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	74.5%	48.6%	67.6%	57.3%	67.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	72.7%	48.6%	67.6%	57.3%	67.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	73.0%	48.6%	67.4%	57.2%	67.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	73.0%	50.0%	67.4%	57.2%	67.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	73.0%	50.0%	67.4%	57.2%	67.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	73.0%	50.0%	67.4%	57.2%	67.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	73.0%	50.0%	59.3%	57.2%	67.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	73.0%	50.0%	59.3%	57.2%	67.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	73.0%	50.0%	59.3%	57.2%	67.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	54.4%	50.0%	59.3%	23.3%	37.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	54.4%	50.0%	59.3%	23.3%	37.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	54.4%	50.0%	59.3%	23.3%	37.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	54.4%	50.0%	59.3%	23.3%	37.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	54.4%	50.0%	59.3%	23.3%	37.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	54.4%	50.0%	61.0%	23.3%	37.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	54.4%	50.0%	61.0%	23.3%	37.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	54.4%	50.0%	61.0%	23.3%	37.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	51.5%	50.0%	61.0%	23.3%	37.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	51.5%	50.0%	61.0%	23.3%	37.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	51.5%	50.0%	61.0%	23.3%	37.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	61%	84.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	83.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	83.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	37%	81.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	78.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗