KMCO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 22:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.4¢Risks 10.45u

EPSNO 89.5¢Risks 89.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.55u · EPS −89.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	28.5%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	13.4%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	1.5%	12.4%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	2.9%	21.4%	0.6%	—	10.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	11.7%	22.6%	1.3%	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.1%	22.2%	1.7%	—	2.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	7.2%	11.1%	0.4%	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	0.3%	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.6%	3.0%	1.9%	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	3.1%	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.2%	1.8%	0.9%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.7%	1.7%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.2%	1.4%	0.6%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.5%	3.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.7%	1.9%	0.7%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	1.2%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	1.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	1.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	84.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	85.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	81.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	78.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Orlando · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗