KMCO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 22:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.4¢Risks 10.45u

EPSNO 89.5¢Risks 89.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.55u · EPS −89.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:05+00:00	35.4%	3.6%	36.1%	12.8%	20.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	35.4%	3.6%	36.1%	12.8%	20.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	35.4%	3.6%	36.1%	12.8%	20.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	35.4%	3.6%	36.1%	12.8%	20.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	35.4%	2.8%	32.9%	12.8%	20.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	35.4%	2.8%	32.9%	12.8%	20.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	35.4%	2.8%	32.9%	12.8%	20.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	35.4%	2.8%	32.9%	12.8%	20.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	32.2%	2.8%	32.9%	12.8%	20.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	32.9%	12.8%	20.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	32.9%	12.8%	20.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	32.9%	12.8%	20.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	28.0%	12.8%	20.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	28.0%	12.8%	20.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	28.0%	12.8%	20.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	36.8%	2.5%	28.0%	12.8%	26.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	36.8%	2.5%	28.0%	12.8%	26.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	36.8%	2.5%	28.0%	12.8%	26.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:10+00:00	36.8%	2.5%	28.0%	12.8%	26.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	36.8%	2.5%	28.0%	22.9%	26.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	36.8%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	26.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	36.8%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	26.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	36.8%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	26.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	26.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	26.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:39+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	26.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	26.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	26.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	26.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	26.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	26.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	31.9%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	34.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	31.9%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	34.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	31.9%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	34.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	31.9%	2.5%	30.8%	22.9%	34.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:31+00:00	31.9%	2.5%	30.8%	23.2%	34.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:45+00:00	31.9%	1.6%	19.8%	23.2%	34.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	31.9%	1.6%	19.8%	23.2%	34.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	31.9%	1.6%	19.8%	23.2%	34.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	29.9%	1.6%	19.8%	23.2%	34.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	30.8%	1.8%	20.1%	23.3%	34.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	30.8%	1.7%	20.1%	23.3%	34.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	30.8%	1.7%	20.1%	23.3%	34.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	30.8%	1.7%	20.1%	23.3%	34.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	30.8%	1.7%	14.7%	23.3%	34.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	30.8%	1.7%	14.7%	23.3%	34.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	30.8%	1.7%	14.7%	23.3%	34.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	15.8%	1.7%	14.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	15.8%	1.7%	14.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	15.8%	1.7%	14.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	15.8%	1.7%	14.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	15.8%	1.7%	14.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	15.8%	1.7%	15.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	15.8%	1.7%	15.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	15.8%	1.7%	15.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	14.1%	1.7%	15.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	14.1%	1.7%	15.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	14.1%	1.7%	15.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:01+00:00	14.1%	1.7%	15.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	14.1%	1.7%	15.7%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	14.1%	1.7%	18.4%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	14.1%	1.7%	18.4%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	14.1%	1.7%	18.4%	5.0%	12.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:21+00:00	3.8%	1.7%	18.4%	1.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	3.8%	1.7%	18.4%	1.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	3.8%	1.7%	18.4%	1.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	3.8%	1.7%	18.4%	1.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	3.8%	1.7%	18.4%	1.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	3.8%	1.7%	12.1%	1.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	24.7%	0.2%	12.1%	1.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	24.7%	0.2%	12.1%	1.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00	24.7%	0.2%	12.1%	1.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	24.7%	0.2%	12.1%	1.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00	24.7%	0.2%	17.1%	1.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	24.7%	0.2%	17.1%	1.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	24.7%	0.2%	17.1%	1.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	24.7%	0.2%	17.1%	1.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00	4.4%	0.2%	17.1%	3.3%	20.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	4.4%	0.2%	17.1%	3.3%	20.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	4.4%	0.2%	17.1%	3.3%	20.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	4.4%	0.2%	17.1%	3.3%	20.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	84.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	85.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	81.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	78.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Orlando · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗