KMCO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

75%

66%

64%

35%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.9¢Risks 55.85u

HRESNO 44.1¢Risks 44.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.15u · HRES −44.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	17.7%	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	14.6%	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	46.8%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	13.5%	57.4%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	46.5%	43.7%	12.6%	—	34.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.3%	33.7%	45.6%	35.7%	—	27.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	51.5%	12.9%	38.7%	—	24.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	44.4%	42.9%	40.5%	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	2.7%	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	44.2%	51.7%	25.1%	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	45.7%	46.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	49.1%	38.8%	32.2%	—	26.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	39.3%	18.4%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	42.7%	47.2%	39.1%	—	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	43.4%	43.4%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	50.0%	10.2%	25.5%	—	26.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	29.1%	8.4%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	38.8%	36.9%	24.3%	—	24.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	59.5%	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	37.1%	29.2%	16.9%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	35.7%	37.8%	0.0%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	34.1%	9.4%	22.4%	0.0%	19.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	48.8%	26.3%	16.7%	—	19.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	35.4%	20.8%	16.6%	36.5%	20.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	8.7%	22.8%	—	21.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	86.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	84.2°F	2.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	86.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	84.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	83.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	80.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 83°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗