KMCO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

75%

66%

64%

35%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.9¢Risks 55.85u

HRESNO 44.1¢Risks 44.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.15u · HRES −44.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:31+00:00	76.2%	93.7%	85.1%	44.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:45+00:00	76.2%	73.9%	69.9%	44.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	76.2%	73.9%	69.9%	44.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	76.2%	73.9%	69.9%	44.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	58.5%	73.9%	69.9%	44.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	58.5%	73.9%	69.8%	44.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	58.5%	75.2%	69.8%	44.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	58.5%	75.2%	69.8%	44.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	58.5%	75.2%	69.8%	44.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	58.5%	75.2%	76.4%	44.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	58.5%	75.2%	76.4%	44.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	58.5%	75.2%	76.4%	44.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	62.6%	75.2%	76.4%	35.3%	66.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	62.6%	75.2%	76.4%	35.3%	66.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	62.6%	75.2%	76.4%	35.3%	66.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	62.6%	75.2%	76.4%	35.3%	66.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	62.6%	75.2%	76.4%	35.3%	66.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	62.6%	75.2%	76.4%	35.3%	66.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	62.6%	75.2%	76.4%	35.3%	66.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	62.6%	75.2%	76.4%	35.3%	66.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	63.9%	75.2%	76.4%	35.3%	66.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	63.9%	75.2%	76.4%	35.3%	66.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	63.9%	75.2%	76.4%	35.3%	66.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	86.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	84.2°F	2.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	86.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	84.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	83.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	80.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 83°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗