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KMCO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≤ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
16%
ICON
6%
AIFS
5%
EPS
1%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 8.8¢Risks 4.38u
VS
WN2NO 91.2¢Risks 45.62u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.62u · WN2 −45.62u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.1% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.5% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 53.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 75.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 51.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 54.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 49.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.0% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 53.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 23.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 27.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 99.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 99.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 68.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 99.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-06 06:0010-13 12:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0097.1%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0061.5%————68.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0023.2%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:008.7%————21.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0012.6%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0023.2%————22.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0010.8%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0013.7%————25.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0020.4%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:007.9%————27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0032.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0032.0%————25.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0028.8%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0032.0%————21.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0016.2%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0029.7%————23.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0027.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0033.4%————18.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0055.9%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0040.7%————20.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0021.6%—22.5%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0012.2%————18.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0015.6%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0019.3%—51.8%——21.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0016.2%—15.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0016.1%————23.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0014.6%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0012.2%—54.4%——20.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0013.1%—9.7%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0011.0%—18.5%——16.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0013.6%—7.6%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0015.9%53.4%11.4%——21.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0029.6%—10.7%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0024.1%16.6%18.4%53.5%—25.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0023.1%—3.9%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0034.3%24.9%16.1%23.2%—31.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0021.0%—5.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0027.7%11.8%49.2%19.5%—32.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0029.9%—15.4%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0027.4%14.5%15.4%16.9%—38.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0021.8%75.7%23.1%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0023.2%13.4%9.7%27.9%—27.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0021.4%11.9%11.5%——99.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0020.2%9.7%15.1%19.6%—24.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0019.6%14.0%32.6%——25.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0021.6%11.5%9.4%13.4%—23.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0021.0%10.4%10.4%——22.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0017.1%7.2%42.3%21.0%—20.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0019.7%17.0%45.0%——21.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0022.7%10.3%11.3%19.7%—19.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0019.8%3.3%22.0%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0016.9%9.4%13.7%24.7%—20.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0014.8%9.2%8.3%99.9%—19.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0015.3%9.0%33.1%16.0%99.1%18.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0012.6%3.7%11.9%19.9%—17.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0012.4%6.7%14.4%18.2%6.3%14.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010.9%—28.0%11.5%—12.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——24.0%—98.9%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast22%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
IFS HRES16%81.4°F5.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend6%80.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON6%84.1°F4.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single5%83.9°F4.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%80.8°F1.9°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%85.9°F4.1°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 76°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-LE76
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Orlando stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 76°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗