KMCO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

59%

28%

24%

19%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.4¢Risks 43.35u

ICONNO 56.6¢Risks 56.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.65u · ICON −56.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	19.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	65.9%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	60.9%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	10.8%	40.0%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	49.3%	44.4%	8.2%	—	33.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	49.3%	59.4%	53.6%	—	23.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	42.4%	33.0%	33.0%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	52.4%	25.5%	30.9%	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	5.5%	47.5%	—	—	19.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	45.0%	38.5%	30.0%	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	28.8%	49.1%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	39.6%	47.4%	33.8%	—	20.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	41.1%	42.9%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	41.8%	39.1%	27.4%	—	23.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	41.5%	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	31.3%	38.5%	25.5%	—	19.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	25.7%	42.0%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	28.5%	33.0%	22.7%	—	14.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	27.1%	32.6%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	21.3%	30.1%	23.8%	23.8%	14.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	27.6%	0.0%	—	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	68%	82.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	82.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	79.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	78.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗