KMCO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

59%

28%

24%

19%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.4¢Risks 43.35u

ICONNO 56.6¢Risks 56.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.65u · ICON −56.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:21+00:00	43.6%	89.6%	81.8%	22.0%	39.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	43.6%	89.6%	81.8%	22.0%	39.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	43.6%	89.6%	81.8%	22.0%	39.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	43.6%	89.6%	81.8%	22.0%	39.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	43.6%	89.6%	81.8%	22.0%	39.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	66.9%	70.7%	73.6%	31.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	66.9%	70.7%	77.3%	31.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	66.9%	70.7%	77.3%	31.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	66.9%	70.7%	77.3%	31.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	70.5%	70.7%	77.3%	31.5%	68.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	70.5%	70.7%	77.3%	31.5%	68.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	70.5%	70.7%	77.3%	31.5%	68.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	70.5%	70.7%	77.3%	31.5%	68.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:53+00:00	70.5%	70.7%	77.3%	31.5%	68.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	70.5%	28.1%	78.6%	31.5%	68.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	70.5%	28.1%	78.6%	31.5%	68.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	70.5%	28.1%	78.6%	31.5%	68.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:14+00:00	68.5%	28.1%	78.6%	28.2%	68.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	68.5%	28.1%	78.6%	28.2%	69.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:24+00:00	68.5%	29.1%	78.6%	28.2%	69.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	68.5%	29.1%	78.6%	28.2%	69.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	68.5%	29.1%	78.6%	28.2%	69.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	68.5%	29.1%	80.4%	28.2%	69.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	68.5%	29.1%	80.4%	28.2%	69.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	68.5%	29.1%	80.4%	28.2%	69.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	63.0%	29.1%	80.4%	28.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	63.0%	29.1%	80.4%	28.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	63.0%	29.1%	80.4%	28.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	63.0%	29.1%	80.4%	28.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	63.0%	29.1%	80.4%	30.9%	64.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	63.0%	29.1%	78.0%	30.9%	64.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:11+00:00	63.0%	29.1%	78.0%	30.9%	64.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	63.0%	29.1%	78.0%	30.9%	64.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	63.7%	29.1%	78.0%	30.9%	64.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	63.7%	29.1%	78.0%	30.9%	64.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	63.7%	29.1%	78.0%	30.9%	64.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	63.7%	29.1%	78.0%	30.9%	64.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	58.4%	26.8%	70.4%	25.8%	35.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	58.4%	26.8%	70.4%	25.8%	35.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	58.4%	26.8%	69.4%	25.8%	35.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	58.4%	26.8%	69.4%	25.8%	35.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	58.4%	26.8%	69.4%	25.8%	35.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	58.8%	26.8%	69.4%	25.8%	18.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	58.8%	26.8%	69.4%	25.8%	18.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	58.8%	26.8%	69.4%	25.8%	18.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	58.8%	26.8%	69.4%	25.8%	18.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00	58.8%	23.8%	67.4%	27.9%	18.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	58.8%	23.8%	67.4%	27.9%	18.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	58.8%	23.8%	67.4%	27.9%	18.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	58.8%	23.8%	67.4%	27.9%	18.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	58.8%	23.8%	67.5%	27.9%	19.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	58.8%	23.8%	67.5%	27.9%	19.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	68%	82.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	82.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	79.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	78.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗