KMCO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 12.8¢Risks 12.75u

EPSNO 87.2¢Risks 87.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +87.25u · EPS −87.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	19.8%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	15.2%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.5%	5.4%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	7.7%	6.0%	0.2%	—	3.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	6.9%	10.9%	8.4%	—	1.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	4.2%	2.4%	2.4%	—	1.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	6.2%	1.2%	1.8%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.1%	4.5%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.6%	2.5%	1.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.1%	4.1%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.2%	3.4%	1.5%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.1%	2.4%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.0%	1.7%	0.7%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.7%	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.7%	1.2%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	1.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	0.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	24%	86.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	78.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	80.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	76.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	84.4°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Orlando · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗