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KMCO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
24%
ICON
14%
AIFS
6%
HRES
2%
EPS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 12.8¢Risks 12.75u
VS
EPSNO 87.2¢Risks 87.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +87.25u · EPS −87.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-15T07:49:23+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T07:49:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T07:49:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:23+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:23+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 10:0710-15 11:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:23+00:005.7%1.3%28.3%2.1%14.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:005.7%1.3%28.3%2.1%14.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:005.7%1.3%28.3%2.1%14.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:005.7%1.3%28.3%2.1%14.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:005.7%1.3%28.3%2.1%14.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:005.7%1.3%24.2%2.1%14.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 224%86.0°F5.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON14%78.8°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single6%80.6°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%76.6°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%84.4°F2.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Orlando · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗