KMCO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≤ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 07:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 12.6¢Risks 12.55u

EPSNO 87.5¢Risks 87.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +87.45u · EPS −87.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:01+00:00	5.1%	0.2%	1.4%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	5.1%	0.2%	1.4%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	5.1%	0.2%	1.4%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	5.1%	0.2%	1.4%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	5.1%	0.5%	1.0%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	5.1%	0.5%	1.0%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	5.1%	0.5%	1.0%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	5.1%	0.5%	1.0%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	5.8%	0.5%	1.0%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	5.8%	0.5%	1.0%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	1.0%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:52+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	1.0%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	0.9%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	0.9%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	0.9%	15.4%	9.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:32+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	0.9%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	1.1%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	1.1%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	6.4%	0.9%	1.1%	20.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00	5.3%	0.9%	1.1%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	5.3%	0.9%	1.1%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	5.3%	0.9%	1.1%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	5.3%	0.9%	1.1%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00	5.3%	0.9%	1.1%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	5.3%	0.7%	0.9%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	5.3%	0.7%	0.9%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	5.3%	0.7%	0.9%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	6.4%	0.7%	0.9%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	6.4%	0.7%	0.9%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:23+00:00	6.4%	0.7%	0.9%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	6.4%	0.7%	0.9%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	6.4%	0.7%	0.9%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	6.4%	0.7%	0.7%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	6.4%	0.7%	0.7%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	6.4%	0.7%	0.7%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	6.1%	0.7%	0.7%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	6.1%	0.7%	0.7%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	6.1%	0.7%	0.7%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	6.1%	0.7%	0.7%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	6.1%	0.7%	0.7%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:27+00:00	6.1%	0.7%	1.0%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	6.1%	0.7%	1.0%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	6.1%	0.7%	1.0%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	5.3%	0.7%	1.0%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	5.3%	0.7%	1.0%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	5.3%	0.7%	1.0%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	5.3%	0.7%	1.0%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	5.3%	0.7%	1.0%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	5.3%	0.7%	1.1%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	5.3%	0.7%	1.1%	24.4%	13.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	5.3%	0.7%	1.1%	24.4%	13.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	24%	78.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	13%	80.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	82.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.3°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 75°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261022-TMAX-LE75
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Orlando stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗